Serra Sul Complex Feasibility Study: $44.51B NPV
Vale S.A.'s Serra Sul Complex in Brazil, Carajás region (Pará) has a Feasibility Study outlining an after-tax NPV of $44.51B.
Vale S.A.'s Serra Sul Complex has reported Feasibility Study results for the iron ore project in Brazil, Carajás region (Pará). The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $44.51B at a 7% discount rate. It reflects Vale S.A.'s (VALE) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $44.51B using a 7% discount rate. Economics are based on Long-term price USD79.62/dmt for 62% iron grade (reserves); USD93/dmt 62% Fe for resources; analyst consensus 62% Fe 2023 USD114/t trending to LT ~USD80/t; 65% Fe 2023 USD126/t trending to LT ~USD90/t.
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an open-pit operation. Average annual production is approximately 90 Mtpy.
These figures are extracted from Vale S.A.'s technical disclosures and reflect the most recent Feasibility Study on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven | 1,506.6 Mt | 65.7% Fe | — |
| Probable | 1,924.3 Mt | 65.2% Fe | — |
| Proven & Probable | 3,430.8 Mt | 65.4% Fe | — |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 542.5 Mt | 66.1% Fe | — |
| Indicated | 407.0 Mt | 64.8% Fe | — |
| Inferred | 123.7 Mt | 64.6% Fe | — |
Our Analysis
- NPV after-tax
- $44.51B
higher than 100% of 360 projects we track
- Study price assumption
- Long-term price USD79.62/dmt for 62% iron grade (reserves); USD93/dmt 62% Fe for resources; analyst consensus 62% Fe 2023 USD114/t trending to LT ~USD80/t; 65% Fe 2023 USD126/t trending to LT ~USD90/t
Ranked against the 360 projects we track, this feasibility study sits at the very top: an after-tax NPV of $44.51B places it higher than 100% of the peer set. That is not a marginal edge; it is a clean outlier in absolute value, though the rank is less about project efficiency than sheer scale. The asset is a producing iron ore operation in Brazil's Carajás region, and the study is a feasibility-level estimate, the build-ready band of plus or minus 15%. For a project already in production, these numbers carry the most weight of any stage we evaluate: the geology, infrastructure and offtake are proven, not assumed.
The constraint that matters most is not technical but financial, and here the picture is unusually comfortable. The NPV is about 0.7x the company's market cap of US$63.79B, meaning the value on offer is roughly in line with what the equity already reflects. That cuts both ways. It suggests the market has not left a wide gap for mispricing, but it also means the company can fund development without the dilution overhang that sinks smaller peers. For a large-cap with a producing asset, the financing hurdle is low, and the jurisdiction, a mining-friendly region with established logistics, does not add a risk premium.
The price assumption deserves scrutiny. The study uses USD79.62/dmt for reserves and USD93/dmt for resources, while analyst consensus trends toward a long-term USD80/t for 62% Fe. Those figures are not aggressive; they sit near the bottom of the consensus range, which is a conservative posture for a study of this size. The single question that decides whether this project works is whether the long-term iron ore price holds near that USD80/t level. If it does, the NPV stands as ranked. If it drifts lower, even a feasibility-grade estimate cannot protect the returns.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.