Serra Sul Complex (S11CD) Feasibility Study: $44.51B NPV
Vale S.A.'s Serra Sul Complex (S11CD) in Brazil (Carajás) has a Feasibility Study outlining an after-tax NPV of $44.51B.
Vale S.A.'s Serra Sul Complex (S11CD) has reported Feasibility Study results for the iron ore project in Brazil (Carajás). The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $44.51B at a 7% discount rate. It reflects Vale S.A.'s (VALE) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $44.51B using a 7% discount rate. Economics are based on Long-term price USD93/dmt for 62% Fe iron grade (resources); long-term price USD79.62/dmt for 62% Fe iron grade (reserves); Platts IODEX 62% Fe CFR China; 65% Fe Index CFR China; VIU per additional percentage point of Fe.
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an open pit operation. Average annual production is approximately 90 Mtpy.
These figures are extracted from Vale S.A.'s technical disclosures and reflect the most recent Feasibility Study on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven | 1,506.6 Mt | 65.7% Fe | — |
| Probable | 1,924.3 Mt | 65.2% Fe | — |
| Proven & Probable | 3,430.8 Mt | 65.4% Fe | — |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 542.5 Mt | 66.1% Fe | — |
| Indicated | 407.0 Mt | 64.8% Fe | — |
| Inferred | 123.7 Mt | 64.6% Fe | — |
Our Analysis
- NPV after-tax
- $44.51B
higher than 100% of 360 projects we track
- Study price assumption
- Long-term price USD93/dmt for 62% Fe iron grade (resources); long-term price USD79.62/dmt for 62% Fe iron grade (reserves); Platts IODEX 62% Fe CFR China; 65% Fe Index CFR China; VIU per additional percentage point of Fe
The NPV ranks above every one of the 360 projects we track, a position that carries real weight given the scale of that peer set. But a top-quartile NPV in iron ore is not the same as one in copper or gold: this is a bulk commodity where the margin per tonne is thin and the value is a function of volume and logistics. The rank tells you the asset is large and the economics are sound, not that it is a high-multiple growth story. What matters more is that this is a feasibility study, the build-ready estimate with a plus or minus 15% band, so the numbers carry the most weight of any stage we cover.
The constraint that matters most is funding, and here the picture is unusually comfortable. The NPV sits at roughly 0.7x the company's market cap of US$63.79B, meaning the project is about in line with the equity value of a large-cap producer. That is a very different financing profile than a junior trying to fund a build worth several times its market cap. The company can absorb this on its balance sheet, likely with a mix of debt and internal cash flow, without the dilution overhang that typically discounts a project's NPV in the market's eyes.
The jurisdiction cuts both ways. Brazil's Carajás is a world-class iron ore district with established infrastructure and a mining-friendly regulatory environment, which de-risks the execution story meaningfully. But Brazil also carries a higher sovereign risk premium than, say, Australia or Canada, and the study's long-term price assumptions of USD93/dmt for resources and USD79.62/dmt for reserves are the key sensitivity. If those hold, the project works; if the iron ore market softens, the margin compression will hit the NPV harder than it would a higher-grade, lower-cost operation. The single question that decides whether this project works is whether the company can maintain its cost position in Carajás through the cycle, because the NPV rank is a function of scale, not of a structural cost advantage that peers lack.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.