Serra Norte Feasibility Study: $26.21B NPV
Vale S.A.'s Serra Norte in Brazil has a Feasibility Study outlining an after-tax NPV of $26.21B.
Vale S.A.'s Serra Norte has reported Feasibility Study results for the iron ore project in Brazil. The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $26.21B at a 7.5% discount rate. It reflects Vale S.A.'s (VALE) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $26.21B using a 7.5% discount rate. Economics are based on Long-term price of US$78/dmt for 62% iron grade (resources); long-term price US$70/dmt for 62% iron grade (reserves).
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an open-pit operation.
These figures are extracted from Vale S.A.'s technical disclosures and reflect the most recent Feasibility Study on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven | 464.3 Mt | 66.1% Fe | — |
| Probable | 1,125.9 Mt | 65.7% Fe | — |
| Proven & Probable | 1,590.2 Mt | 65.8% Fe | — |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 592.7 Mt | 66.4% Fe | — |
| Indicated | 491.5 Mt | 66.1% Fe | — |
| Inferred | 293.4 Mt | 66.0% Fe | — |
Our Analysis
- NPV after-tax
- $26.21B
higher than 100% of 360 projects we track
- Study price assumption
- Long-term price of US$78/dmt for 62% iron grade (resources); long-term price US$70/dmt for 62% iron grade (reserves)
The $26.21B after-tax NPV places this project at the top of our tracked universe, ranking above 100% of the 360 projects we follow across all commodities. That is a remarkable position, but it is not an outlier in the sense of a high-risk, high-reward venture; this is a feasibility-stage iron ore project in Brazil from a large-cap producer. The rank tells you the asset is real and the economics are substantial, but for a company with a US$63.79B market cap, the NPV at roughly 0.4x that figure is meaningful without being transformative. The market already capitalizes this business on a scale where a project of this size moves the needle, but does not redefine the company.
The constraint that matters most is not the grade or the geology, it is the financing and execution question. A feasibility study carries a plus or minus 15% band, so the numbers here have the most weight of any stage we track, and the project is already in production, which de-risks the construction narrative entirely. The company is not proposing to build something several times its equity value; it is expanding or optimizing an existing operation. That is a fundamentally different risk profile than a junior trying to fund a greenfield build, and it explains why the market cap to NPV gap is narrow rather than a deep-value signal.
The study's long-term price assumptions, US$78/dmt for resources and US$70/dmt for reserves, are the key sensitivity to watch. The gap between those two assumptions is itself a signal of conservatism in the reserves case, and the returns hinge on whether those levels hold over the asset's life. If they soften, the NPV compresses, but the feasibility-stage certainty and the company's scale provide a buffer that most tracked projects lack. The single deciding question is whether the market's view of long-run iron ore pricing aligns with the study's assumptions, because everything else here is already de-risked.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.