Soto Norte Project PFS: $2.68B NPV, 35.4% IRR
Aris Mining Corporation's Soto Norte Project in Santander, Colombia has a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) outlining an after-tax NPV of $2.68B, an after-tax IRR of 35.4%, and initial capital of $625M. The mine plan runs 22 years at about 263 koz Au (years 2 to 10) per year.
Aris Mining Corporation's Soto Norte Project has reported Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) results for the gold project in Santander, Colombia. The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $2.68B at a 5% discount rate. It reflects Aris Mining Corporation's (ARIS.TO) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $2.68B using a 5% discount rate. After-tax IRR is 35.4%. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at $625M. The study models a payback period of 2.3 years. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at 534 USD/oz. Economics are based on Base case gold price US$2,600/oz.
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an underground operation. Life of mine is 22 years. Average annual production is approximately 263 koz Au (years 2 to 10).
Resources and ownership. The company holds a 100% interest in the project.
These figures are extracted from Aris Mining Corporation's technical disclosures and reflect the most recent PFS on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven & Probable | — | — | 4.6 Moz Au |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measured & Indicated | — | — | 7.0 Moz Au |
Our Analysis
- IRR after-tax
- 35.4%
higher than 51% of 119 projects we track
- NPV after-tax
- $2.68B
higher than 92% of 192 projects we track
- Initial capex
- $625M
23% of NPV
costlier than 79% of 174 projects we track
- Payback
- 2.3yrs
slower than 56% of 103 projects we track
- Mine life
- 22yrs
- Discount rate
- 5%
- Study price assumption
- Base case gold price US$2,600/oz
- Spot gold today
- $4,181.10/oz
The headline NPV of $2.68B ranks above 92% of the 192 gold projects we track, yet the after-tax IRR of 35.4% sits only in the upper half, ahead of 51% of 119 peers. That split is the useful signal: the absolute return clears the ~15% hurdle developers need for project finance with room to spare, but it is not exceptional against the peer set, and the payback of 2.3 years is middling, shorter than only 44% of 103 peers. Investors are buying a large, financeable but not standout return profile, and the 5% discount rate behind the NPV is a reporting convention rather than anything to read into.
The constraint that matters is not funding. At $625M, initial capex is 23% of NPV and roughly 0.2x the company's US$3.72B market cap, so the build is small relative to the equity base and this is one of five projects in a diversified portfolio. That materially lowers dilution and financing risk, and it is the sharpest thing in the numbers. The offset is confidence: this is a PFS, not a feasibility study or a build decision, so the estimates carry a plus or minus 25% band and the capex and returns can still move.
Santander, Colombia is the swing factor. A mining-friendly enough jurisdiction to permit and build, but one that warrants a risk premium on timeline and fiscal terms, which is part of why a 35.4% IRR and a 92nd-percentile NPV have not translated into a richer multiple. The study's $2,600/oz base case also sits well below today's $4,181.10/oz spot, so the returns carry real upside if prices hold, though that is a commodity bet, not a project one. The question that decides this: does the PFS convert to a feasibility study with capex and permits intact?
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.
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