Soto Norte PFS: $2.68B NPV, 35.4% IRR
Aris Mining Corporation's Soto Norte in Santander, Colombia has a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) outlining an after-tax NPV of $2.68B, an after-tax IRR of 35.4%, and initial capital of $625M. The mine plan runs 22 years at about 263 koz Au per year.
Aris Mining Corporation's Soto Norte has reported Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) results for the gold project in Santander, Colombia. The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $2.68B at a 5% discount rate. It reflects Aris Mining Corporation's (ARIS.TO) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $2.68B using a 5% discount rate. After-tax IRR is 35.4%. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at $625M. The study models a payback period of 2.3 years. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at 534 USD/oz. Economics are based on Base case gold price of $2,600/oz.
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an underground operation. Life of mine is 22 years. Average annual production is approximately 263 koz Au.
These figures are extracted from Aris Mining Corporation's technical disclosures and reflect the most recent PFS on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven & Probable | — | 7.0 g/t Au | 4.6 Moz Au |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measured & Indicated | — | 5.6 g/t Au | 7.0 Moz Au |
Our Analysis
- IRR after-tax
- 35.4%
higher than 46% of 108 projects we track
- NPV after-tax
- $2.68B
higher than 93% of 143 projects we track
- Initial capex
- $625M
23% of NPV
costlier than 81% of 143 projects we track
- Payback
- 2.3yrs
slower than 58% of 88 projects we track
- Mine life
- 22yrs
- Discount rate
- 5%
- Study price assumption
- Base case gold price of $2,600/oz
- Spot gold today
- $4,476.60/oz
A 35.4% after-tax IRR that ranks above only 46% of the 108 gold projects we track is not the headline this study pretends it is. The NPV does the heavy lifting instead: at $2.68B, it sits above 93% of the 143 gold projects we track. That divergence, a middling return paired with a top-decile NPV, is the first thing an investor should reconcile. The payback of 2.3 years is moderate, ranking below 42% of the 88 projects we track. In absolute terms, a 35.4% IRR clears the roughly 15% after-tax hurdle developers need to secure project finance, so the return is bankable, just not exceptional within the peer set.
The more important caveat is the study stage. This is a PFS, which narrows estimates to roughly a plus or minus 25% band but is not a build decision. Confidence in a 22-year mine life and a $2.68B NPV should be tempered accordingly. The 5% discount rate sits at the low end of the reporting convention and flatters the headline NPV; it is a reporting choice, not an investment signal. On price, the base case of $2,600/oz gold sits well below today's spot of $4,476.60/oz, which means the study's returns are conservative on the commodity side, a genuine cushion against the PFS-level uncertainty elsewhere.
Funding risk is the constraint that matters most, and here the picture is unusually clean. Initial capex of $625M is about 0.1x the company's US$4.18B market cap, small enough to finance without existential dilution. The NPV sits at roughly 0.6x market cap, and this is one of four projects we track for a diversified mid-cap, not a single-asset bet. The jurisdiction, Santander, Colombia, carries real operating risk that the numbers cannot quantify. The deciding question is whether the market's skepticism on that jurisdiction, or its comfort with the portfolio, is the correct read on a project whose returns are solid but whose NPV is the real prize.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.