Simfer Iron Ore Project (Simandou) Feasibility Study: $4.40B NPV, $4.60B Capex
Rio Tinto's Simfer Iron Ore Project (Simandou) in Republic of Guinea, approximately 550 km southeast of Conakry, Simandou Range has a Feasibility Study outlining an after-tax NPV of $4.40B and initial capital of $4.60B.
Rio Tinto's Simfer Iron Ore Project (Simandou) has reported Feasibility Study results for the iron ore project in Republic of Guinea, approximately 550 km southeast of Conakry, Simandou Range. The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $4.40B at a 8% discount rate. It reflects Rio Tinto's (RIO) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $4.40B using a 8% discount rate. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at $4.60B. Economics are based on Specific product pricing determined from a 65% Fe Fines price of US c 136.10 / dmtu CFR China, sourced from an average of forecasts from CRU and Wood Mackenzie..
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an open-pit operation. Average annual production is approximately 60 Mtpa of high grade iron ore fines.
Resources and ownership. The company holds a 45.05% interest in the project.
These figures are extracted from Rio Tinto's technical disclosures and reflect the most recent Feasibility Study on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven | 123 Mt | 66.4% Fe, 1.0% SiO2, 1.2% Al2O3, 0.07% P, 2.5% LOI | — |
| Probable | 552 Mt | 65.0% Fe, 0.9% SiO2, 1.8% Al2O3, 0.10% P, 3.9% LOI | — |
| Proven & Probable | 675 Mt | 65.3% Fe, 0.9% SiO2, 1.7% Al2O3, 0.09% P, 3.6% LOI | — |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 66 Mt | 67.1% Fe, 1.9% SiO2, 1.1% Al2O3, 0.04% P, 1.0% LOI | — |
| Indicated | 198 Mt | 66.2% Fe, 1.8% SiO2, 1.5% Al2O3, 0.05% P, 1.8% LOI | — |
| Measured & Indicated | 264 Mt | 66.5% Fe, 1.8% SiO2, 1.4% Al2O3, 0.05% P, 1.6% LOI | — |
| Inferred | 340 Mt | 65.8% Fe, 1.4% SiO2, 1.4% Al2O3, 0.07% P, 2.8% LOI | — |
Our Analysis
- NPV after-tax
- $4.40B
higher than 96% of 476 projects we track
- Initial capex
- $4.60B
105% of NPV
costlier than 97% of 463 projects we track
- Study price assumption
- Specific product pricing determined from a 65% Fe Fines price of US c 136.10 / dmtu CFR China, sourced from an average of forecasts from CRU and Wood Mackenzie.
The Simandou iron ore project sits in rare air on returns: its after-tax NPV ranks higher than 96% of the 476 projects we track across all commodities. That is a top-decile asset by value, and it is a feasibility study, not a scoping exercise, so the estimate carries a plus or minus 15% band rather than the loose ranges you get earlier in the pipeline. For an investor, the rank tells you this is one of the better undeveloped ore bodies on our books.
The constraint is the build. Initial capex is 105% of NPV, and only 3% of the 463 projects we track are more capital-intensive against their own net present value. That ratio is the number to sit with: the project spends more to build than it generates in discounted after-tax value. What rescues it is the parent. The company carries a large-cap market capitalisation, so the build cost is small against its equity, and this is one of 36 projects in a diversified portfolio. Funding risk here is real but manageable, which is not something most single-asset developers at this intensity can say.
The jurisdiction colours everything. Guinea's Simandou Range is a high-quality ore body in a higher-risk operating environment, and that gap between NPV and market cap cuts both ways: it can mean the asset is unpriced, or that the market is discounting execution, permitting and country risk. The study prices its product off a 65% Fe Fines assumption of US c 136.10 per dmtu CFR China, an average of CRU and Wood Mackenzie forecasts, and those returns are sensitive to it. The question that decides this project is whether the company can deliver the build in Guinea on schedule and on budget.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.