KSM Project PFS: $7.90B NPV, 16.1% IRR
Seabridge Gold Inc.'s KSM Project in British Columbia, Canada has a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) outlining an after-tax NPV of $7.90B, an after-tax IRR of 16.1%, and initial capital of $6.40B. The mine plan runs 33 years at about 1027 koz Au per year.
Seabridge Gold Inc.'s KSM Project has reported Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) results for the gold & copper project in British Columbia, Canada. The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $7.90B at a 5% discount rate. It reflects Seabridge Gold Inc.'s (SEA.TO) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $7.90B using a 5% discount rate. After-tax IRR is 16.1%. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at $6.40B, with life-of-mine sustaining capital of $3.20B. The study models a payback period of 3.7 years. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at 601 USD/oz Au. Economics are based on Base Case: US$1,742/oz Au, US$3.53/lb Cu, US$18.0/oz Ag; US$/C$ 0.77.
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an open-pit operation. Life of mine is 33 years. Average annual production is approximately 1027 koz Au. The open-pit strip ratio is 1:1 life of mine.
Resources and ownership. The company holds a 100% interest in the project. Royalties and streams: Note convertible into a 60% silver royalty at KSM at commercial production (US$225M from Sprott Royalties and Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, Feb 2022); additional note convertible into a 1.0% NSR at KSM at commercial production (US$150M from Sprott Royalties, June 2023).
These figures are extracted from Seabridge Gold Inc.'s technical disclosures and reflect the most recent PFS on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven & Probable | 2,292 Mt | 0.64 g/t Au, 0.14% Cu, 2.2 g/t Ag, 76 ppm Mo | 47.3 Moz Au, 7,320 Mlb Cu, 160 Moz Ag, 385 Mlb Mo |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measured & Indicated | 6,255 Mt | 0.47 g/t Au, 0.15% Cu, 2.3 g/t Ag, 61 ppm Mo | 95.5 Moz Au, 21,146 Mlb Cu, 460 Moz Ag, 837 Mlb Mo |
| Inferred | 8,469 Mt | 0.31 g/t Au, 0.23% Cu, 2.1 g/t Ag, 32 ppm Mo | 84.4 Moz Au, 42,722 Mlb Cu, 570 Moz Ag, 606 Mlb Mo |
Our Analysis
- IRR after-tax
- 16.1%
higher than 8% of 355 projects we track
- NPV after-tax
- $7.90B
higher than 98% of 454 projects we track
- Initial capex
- $6.40B
81% of NPV
costlier than 98% of 454 projects we track
- Payback
- 3.7yrs
slower than 76% of 286 projects we track
- Mine life
- 33yrs
- Discount rate
- 5%
- Study price assumption
- Base Case: US$1,742/oz Au, US$3.53/lb Cu, US$18.0/oz Ag; US$/C$ 0.77
- Spot gold today
- $4,408.90/oz
The build cost is the story. At US$6.40B, the initial capex on this British Columbia gold-copper development is roughly 1.9 times the company's entire US$3.38B market cap. That single ratio frames everything else: this is not a project a mid-cap funds out of cash flow or a modest equity raise. Whoever writes that cheque, whether a partner, a streaming counterparty, a consortium of lenders or a heavily dilutive equity issue, will be taking a claim on the asset that existing holders cannot match. The practical question is not whether the returns clear a bar, but who ends up owning the outcome.
The economics themselves are respectable but not the point. The after-tax NPV of US$7.90B ranks higher than 98% of the 454 projects we track, and at roughly 2.3 times market cap it dwarfs the company. But that gap cuts both ways: it can mean the market has not yet priced the asset, or that it is discounting exactly the funding, permitting and execution risk a build of this size carries. The 16.1% after-tax IRR ranks higher than only 8% of the 355 projects we track, a bottom-quartile result that sits just above the roughly 15% developers typically need to attract project finance. Payback of 3.7 years is moderate. The 5% study discount rate is a reporting convention, not an investment hurdle, and should not be read as a signal either way.
Two things temper confidence. This is a PFS, which narrows the estimate to roughly a plus or minus 25% band but is not yet a build decision. And the study's US$1,742/oz gold assumption sits well below today's US$4,408.90/oz spot, so the headline numbers may understate the upside if prices hold. The company's diversified six-project portfolio and mid-cap scale mean it is not a single-asset junior facing a junior's financing hurdle, but that does not make a 1.9x-market-cap build easy. The deciding question: can this company fund US$6.40B without handing away the project?
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.