Jansen Potash Project PFS: $11.20B NPV, 18.3% IRR
BHP Group's Jansen Potash Project in Canada (Saskatchewan) has a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) outlining an after-tax NPV of $11.20B, an after-tax IRR of 18.3%, and initial capital of $9.00B.
BHP Group's Jansen Potash Project has reported Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) results for the potash project in Canada (Saskatchewan). The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $11.20B at a 7% discount rate. It reflects BHP Group's (BHP) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $11.20B using a 7% discount rate. After-tax IRR is 18.3%. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at $9.00B. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at 90 USD/t KCl. Economics are based on Potash price of US$391/t (Real 2024 basis).
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an underground (long room and pillar) operation. Metallurgical recovery averages 88%.
Resources and ownership. The company holds a 100% interest in the project.
These figures are extracted from BHP Group's technical disclosures and reflect the most recent PFS on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probable | 1,070 Mt | 24.9% K2O, 7.5% Insol, 0.10% MgO | — |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inferred | 1,280 Mt | 25.6% K2O, 7.7% Insol, 0.08% MgO | — |
Our Analysis
- IRR after-tax
- 18.3%
higher than 12% of 304 projects we track
- NPV after-tax
- $11.20B
higher than 100% of 360 projects we track
- Initial capex
- $9.00B
80% of NPV
costlier than 100% of 376 projects we track
- Discount rate
- 7%
- Study price assumption
- Potash price of US$391/t (Real 2024 basis)
A 18.3% after-tax IRR places this project in the bottom quartile of the 304 projects we track, while its $11.20B NPV ranks in the top percentile of 360. That spread is the entire investment thesis in miniature: a massive, low-risk resource that generates modest returns per dollar invested. For a large-cap developer, the 18.3% clears the ~15% financing hurdle that typically unlocks project debt, but it does not clear it by much. The rank against peers matters more than the absolute number, and that rank says this is a steady, institutional-grade asset, not a growth story.
The constraint that matters most is the $9.00B initial capex, which is 80% of NPV and sits at the very bottom of our capital-intensity rankings across 376 projects. But the sharpest funding signal here is the build cost relative to the company's US$218.22B market cap: this is a project a large-cap can absorb without strain. That combination, high absolute cost but low relative burden, is unusual. It means the financing risk is not whether the company can afford it, but whether the capital is better deployed elsewhere. The PFS stage, with its plus or minus 25% band, is appropriate for a decision of this scale, but it is not yet a build commitment.
The study assumes a potash price of US$391/t on a Real 2024 basis, which frames the returns as a sensitivity rather than a forecast. Saskatchewan is a mining-friendly jurisdiction, which supports the low-risk profile implied by the NPV rank. The two-sided read on the NPV-to-market-cap gap is that the market is not pricing this asset as a needle-mover for a company of this size, and it is likely right. The question that decides whether this project works is not whether it gets built, but whether a US$9.00B deployment into a bottom-quartile IRR is the best use of capital for a company that can choose its projects.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.