Jansen Potash PFS: $11M NPV, 18.3% IRR
BHP Group's Jansen Potash in Canada, Saskatchewan has a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) outlining an after-tax NPV of $11M, an after-tax IRR of 18.3%, and initial capital of $9.00B.
BHP Group's Jansen Potash has reported Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) results for the potash project in Canada, Saskatchewan. The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $11M at a 7% discount rate. It reflects BHP Group's (BHP) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $11M using a 7% discount rate. After-tax IRR is 18.3%. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at $9.00B. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at 90 USD/t KCl. Economics are based on Potash price of US$391/t (Real 2024 basis).
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an underground (long room & pillar) operation. Average head grade is 24.9% K2O. Metallurgical recovery averages 88%.
Resources and ownership. The company holds a 100% interest in the project.
These figures are extracted from BHP Group's technical disclosures and reflect the most recent PFS on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probable | 1,070 Mt | 24.9% K2O, 7.5% insol, 0.10% MgO | — |
| Proven | – | – | — |
| Total | 1,070 Mt | 24.9% K2O, 7.5% insol, 0.10% MgO | — |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inferred | 1,280 Mt | 25.6% K2O, 7.7% insol, 0.08% MgO | — |
| Measured | – | – | — |
| Indicated | – | – | — |
| Measured & Indicated | – | – | — |
Our Analysis
- IRR after-tax
- 18.3%
higher than 12% of 304 projects we track
- NPV after-tax
- $11M
higher than 1% of 360 projects we track
- Initial capex
- $9.00B
80357% of NPV
costlier than 100% of 376 projects we track
- Discount rate
- 7%
- Study price assumption
- Potash price of US$391/t (Real 2024 basis)
The project’s returns sit firmly in the bottom quartile of the 304 projects we track, with an 18.3% after-tax IRR that ranks higher than just 12% of the peer set. The NPV is the more striking outlier: an after-tax $11M ranks higher than only 1% of 360 tracked projects. That combination, a middling IRR with a negligible NPV, tells you this is a marginal economic proposition at the study’s own assumptions. The 7% discount rate is a standard reporting convention, not a hurdle, so it adds no color. What matters is that a developer typically needs roughly a 15% after-tax IRR to secure project finance, and this clears that bar, but barely.
The constraint that dominates is capital intensity, not jurisdiction or commodity. Initial capex is $9.00B, which is 80,357% of NPV, a figure lower than 0% of the 376 projects we track. That is the most extreme capital-to-value ratio in our database, and it reframes everything. However, the funding risk is muted by the company’s scale: the build cost is small relative to a US$218.22B market cap, so this is not a financing story in the usual junior sense. The company can absorb the spend; the question is whether the spend makes sense. Saskatchewan is a stable, mining-friendly jurisdiction, and potash is a prosaic commodity, so the risk is not political or geological, it is purely economic.
This is a PFS, which narrows the estimate to roughly a plus or minus 25% band, but it is not yet a build decision. The study assumes a potash price of US$391/t (Real 2024 basis); if that assumption holds, the project barely earns its keep. The single question that decides whether this works is whether the company can justify committing $9.00B to an asset that, at these numbers, generates an NPV of $11M. There is no upside cushion here, and the market cap does not change that arithmetic.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.