Bornite Project PEA: $394M NPV, 20% IRR
Trilogy Metals Inc.'s Bornite Project in Alaska, USA (Ambler Mining District, Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects) has a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) outlining an after-tax NPV of $394M, an after-tax IRR of 20%, and initial capital of $503M. The mine plan runs 17 years at about 109 Mlbs Cu per year.
Trilogy Metals Inc.'s Bornite Project has reported Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) results for the copper project in Alaska, USA (Ambler Mining District, Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects). The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $394M at a 8% discount rate. It reflects Trilogy Metals Inc.'s (TMQ.TO) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $394M using a 8% discount rate. After-tax IRR is 20%. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at $503M, with life-of-mine sustaining capital of $866M. The study models a payback period of 4.4 years. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at 3.35 USD/lb Cu Payable. Economics are based on Base case: $4.20/lb Cu.
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an open-pit & underground operation. Life of mine is 17 years. Average annual production is approximately 109 Mlbs Cu.
Resources and ownership. The company holds a 50% interest in the project.
These figures are extracted from Trilogy Metals Inc.'s technical disclosures and reflect the most recent PEA on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inferred | 170.40 Mt | 1.15% Cu | 4,303 Mlbs Cu |
| Inferred | 27.50 Mt | 2.78% Cu | 1,687 Mlbs Cu |
| Inferred | 10.40 Mt | 2.28% Cu | 521 Mlbs Cu |
| Inferred | 0.70 Mt | 0.98% Cu | 16 Mlbs Cu |
| Inferred | 208.90 Mt | 1.42% Cu | 6,527 Mlbs Cu |
Our Analysis
The 20% after-tax IRR lands in the lower half of our 26-project copper peer group and sits only marginally above the ~15% threshold needed to secure project finance for a developer. For a single-asset junior in a remote, high-cost jurisdiction like Alaska’s Ambler Mining District, the market will demand a premium closer to 20%+; this project barely clears that bar. The 8% discount rate is standard reporting convention but flatters the $394M NPV—a higher, more conservative rate would shrink that figure meaningfully. The $503M initial capex, at 128% of NPV, is capital-intensive and represents a heavy financing burden relative to the company’s market cap, which the NPV roughly matches. That market-cap alignment cuts both ways: it could mean the asset is fairly priced for the risk, or that the market is already discounting execution, permitting, or dilution risk in Alaska’s complex regulatory environment.
The base-case copper price of $4.20/lb sits well below today’s $6.29/lb spot, which provides a substantial buffer—returns could be materially higher if prices hold, but the study’s economics are not stress-tested for a downturn. The single biggest watch-item is funding risk: raising $503M in capex for a junior with a market cap roughly in line with the NPV will likely require significant equity dilution or a partner, both of which compress returns for current shareholders. The 4.4-year payback is long for a copper project, adding to the risk profile.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.