Arctic Project Feasibility Study: $1.11B NPV, 22.8% IRR
Trilogy Metals Inc.'s Arctic Project in Alaska, USA (Ambler Mining District, Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects) has a Feasibility Study outlining an after-tax NPV of $1.11B, an after-tax IRR of 22.8%, and initial capital of $1.18B. The mine plan runs 13 years at about 149 Mlbs Cu per year.
Trilogy Metals Inc.'s Arctic Project has reported Feasibility Study results for the copper project in Alaska, USA (Ambler Mining District, Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects). The study headlines an after-tax net present value of $1.11B at a 8% discount rate. It reflects Trilogy Metals Inc.'s (TMQ.TO) latest disclosed economics for the asset.
Economics. The after-tax NPV is $1.11B using a 8% discount rate. After-tax IRR is 22.8%. Initial capital expenditure is estimated at $1.18B, with life-of-mine sustaining capital of $1.72B. The study models a payback period of 3.1 years. All-in sustaining costs are pegged at 1.61 USD/lb Cu Payable. Economics are based on Base case: $3.65/lb Cu, $1.15/lb Zn, $1.00/lb Pb, $21.00/oz Ag, $1,650/oz Au.
Production and mine plan. The project envisions an open-pit operation. Life of mine is 13 years. Average annual production is approximately 149 Mlbs Cu. Average head grade is 2.11% Cu, 2.9% Zn, 0.56% Pb, 0.42 g/t Au, 31.8 g/t Ag. The open-pit strip ratio is 7.3:1.
Resources and ownership. The company holds a 50% interest in the project.
These figures are extracted from Trilogy Metals Inc.'s technical disclosures and reflect the most recent Feasibility Study on file. Compare this project against other developers and producers in our project economics database, and always verify the numbers against the original technical report before making any investment decision.
Reserves & Resources
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probable | 46,700,000 tonnes | 2.11% Cu, 2.9% Zn, 0.56% Pb, 0.42 g/t Au, 31.8 g/t Ag | — |
| Category | Tonnage | Grade | Contained |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indicated | 35.70 Mt | 2.98% Cu, 0.79% Pb, 4.09% Zn, 0.59 g/t Au, 45.20 g/t Ag | 2,347 Mlbs Cu, 621 Mlbs Pb, 3,216 Mlbs Zn, 675 koz Au, 52 Moz Ag |
| Inferred | 4.50 Mt | 1.92% Cu, 0.70% Pb, 2.93% Zn, 0.43 g/t Au, 35.60 g/t Ag | 189 Mlbs Cu, 69 Mlbs Pb, 288 Mlbs Zn, 62 koz Au, 5 Moz Ag |
Our Analysis
This project delivers a 22.8% after-tax IRR, placing it in the upper half of the 26 copper peers we track and clearing the practical financing hurdle for a single-asset junior developer. The 8% discount rate used for NPV reporting is low, which flatters the $1.11B NPV figure; a higher rate would compress it meaningfully. The NPV sits at roughly 1.9x the company's market cap, which can be read two ways: either the market has not yet priced in the project's value, or it is discounting significant execution risk.
The capital intensity is a clear concern—initial capex of $1.18B equals 106% of NPV, implying heavy funding needs relative to the asset's present value. For a junior with a market cap well below that capex, dilution or financing risk is material. The base-case copper price of $3.65/lb sits far below the current spot of $6.29/lb, so the returns could prove conservative if prices hold, but the jurisdiction—Alaska's Ambler Mining District—adds permitting and logistical complexity that can delay timelines and inflate costs. The single most important watch-item is the financing plan for that $1.18B capex, given the company's current equity base.
Our take, benchmarked against the project economics in the Mining Stocks database. Figures are estimates drawn from company technical reports — not investment advice; always verify against the source filing.