Rio Tinto's solid numbers mask a bigger question about what comes next
Deutsche Bank analyst Liam Fitzpatrick came away from Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) full-year results with his 'hold' rating intact and a target price of 6,200p, leaving the stock looking stretched at its current price of 7,108p. The numbers themselves were broadly in line with...
Rio Tinto Ltd(LSE:RIOASX:RIOOTC:RTNTF) View Price & Profile Rio Tinto's solid numbers mask a bigger question about what comes next
Last updated: 08:45 20 Feb 2026 EST, First published: 08:43 20 Feb 2026 EST
Deutsche Bank analyst Liam Fitzpatrick came away from Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) full-year results with his 'hold' rating intact and a target price of 6,200p, leaving the stock looking stretched at its current price of 7,108p.
The numbers themselves were broadly in line with expectations. Full-year EBITDA of $25.4 billion nudged fractionally ahead of the $25.2 billion consensus, with copper doing the heavy lifting.
Low operating costs at the Escondida mine in Chile and favourable provisional pricing helped the division outperform, offsetting a weaker set of aluminium results where costs came in higher than anticipated.
Earnings per share of 669c translated into a final dividend of 254c, reflecting a 60% annual payout ratio in line with what the market had pencilled in.
The one mild blemish was net debt of $14.4 billion, slightly above the $14.1 billion consensus, driven by capital expenditure of $11.4 billion against guidance of roughly $11 billion.
Production guidance for 2026, first set out at Rio's December capital markets day, was left unchanged. Deutsche Bank flags, however, that the copper targets may prove conservative given recent output trends at the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia and at Escondida.
Clean results, in other words, but with the bigger debate about M&A strategy still unresolved and the shares trading well above Deutsche Bank's target, Fitzpatrick sees little reason to get more constructive for now.