Rio Tinto now expected to refocus, Swiss bank ups earnings assumptions

Rio Tinto Ltd(LSE:RIOASX:RIOOTC:RTNTF) View Price & Profile Rio Tinto now expected to refocus, Swiss bank ups earnings assumptions

Published: 08:33 11 Feb 2026 EST

Rio Tinto Ltd returned to the broker spotlight after UBS resumed coverage with a 'Neutral' rating and lifted its 12-month price target to 6,900p from 5,800p, even as the shares traded at 7,051p.

The bank’s restart comes after Rio confirmed it does not intend to make an offer for Glencore PLC, cooling a market debate that had briefly reopened the “GlenTinto” merger narrative.

UBS raised its earnings assumptions into 2026 and 2027, upgrading 2026E EBITDA by 7% and 2027E by 4%. The bank said the changes reflect higher lithium price assumptions updated in February 2026, upgrades to precious metals prices, and Rio’s fourth-quarter production report released on 21 January.

With the takeover speculation parked, UBS expects management to refocus on the company’s stated push to be “a Stronger, Sharper and Simpler organisation” — targeting a 40–50% uplift in EBITDA by 2030 and around 3% per annum organic growth to 2030, driven mainly by Simandou, OT and lithium. The broker also flagged an intention to exit non-core operations and infrastructure such as TiO2 and borates, while maintaining a 60% dividend payout, and said the Glencore talks underscore Rio’s ambition to increase exposure to copper via organic options and, potentially, selective M&A.

On the aborted Glencore approach, UBS said Rio walked away after due diligence because the parties were “significantly apart on price” and governance, with Glencore reportedly seeking about 40% of the combined entity and Rio aiming to retain the chairman and CEO roles.