Glencore H2 Earnings Call Highlights

Glencore LON: GLEN reported what CEO Gary Nagle described as a “very good year” for 2025, highlighted by a strong second-half recovery and strength in its metals business. The company posted $13.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the year, with roughly $10 billion coming from the industrial division and $2.9 billion from marketing.

Nagle said the first half of 2025 was weak as expected, but the year ended “very strongly.” CFO Steven Kalmin underscored the second-half momentum, noting the business saw a “50% increase” when comparing H1 to H2 across the group, with industrial up 65% in the second half and marketing also improving.

Management attributed the industrial performance primarily to metals, with Nagle calling out copper and zinc as particularly strong contributors. Kalmin said the year-over-year price variance within industrial reflected a +1.9 contribution from metals, partially offset by a -2.4 hit in coal.

Kalmin said copper prices averaged 9% higher year over year, and copper contributed $1 billion of the metals price variance. Zinc also improved, with Kalmin pointing to strong zinc pricing and meaningful support from gold by-products, especially at Kazinc. He said the zinc business improved by about $1 billion year over year, including $800 million from zinc itself, of which $500 million came from Kazinc.

On the other hand, Nagle said energy and steelmaking coal were weaker amid lower prices, especially in the first half, though he said the company remained “very cash generative” due to product quality. He noted coal markets improved toward the end of 2025 and into 2026, citing:

Nagle also said Glencore may consider its own energy coal production cuts despite higher prices, describing supply discipline as “always on the table,” particularly in Australia.

Glencore’s marketing division delivered $2.9 billion of adjusted EBIT, which Nagle said sits around the middle of the company’s updated earnings range. He emphasized that the updated range excludes Viterra trading profits from prior periods, making the 2025 outcome “materially higher” on a like-for-like basis compared to historical performance.

Management said marketing strength was driven by metals—particularly copper—where “trade dislocations,” regional arbitrage, and a tight concentrate market created opportunities. Trading conditions in energy and steelmaking coal were weaker for much of the year, though Nagle said opportunities began returning around September and October, with a better start to 2026.

Nagle revisited Glencore’s longer-term copper growth ambitions discussed at its December presentation, reiterating the company’s levers to grow from a roughly 1 million tonne base toward ~1.6 million tonnes by 2035, with potential to exceed 2 million tonnes depending on project sequencing.

Key updates included:

Outside of copper, Nagle highlighted portfolio “monetization” and simplification steps, including a partial sale of Glencore’s stake in Century Aluminum while retaining what he called a meaningful holding. He also cited the sale of the César smelter in the Philippines and the sale of an underutilized Colombian port near Santa Marta that had been built to serve the former Prodeco mines.

Kalmin said net debt finished the year essentially unchanged, noting the company generated $8.7 billion of funds from operations. He highlighted a $1 billion HMRC-related payment tied to legacy matters that is recorded as an income tax receivable, with management expecting a “significant portion” to be recovered through an ongoing U.K.-Swiss resolution process.

On capital returns, management said Glencore declared a $2 billion dividend. Nagle said the company has returned more than $27 billion to shareholders since 2021. In the Q&A, management said it opted for more cash returns after receiving shareholder feedback, while keeping buybacks “firmly on the table.”

Kalmin reiterated CapEx guidance of $26–$28 billion over the 2026–2028 period, consistent with the company’s prior CMD, and said Glencore continues to see strong momentum moving into 2026. Nagle closed by outlining 2026 priorities including safety, operational excellence, organic growth de-risking, balance sheet strength, and shareholder value creation. He noted the company recorded two fatalities in 2025, which he called “two too many,” while also stating this represented the lowest fatality count the business has recorded.

In Q&A, management said it has received “zero incoming” from shareholders about revisiting a coal spin-off after a previous consultation, and described coal as a cash-generative “bedrock” for returns. Nagle also confirmed discussions with Rio Tinto did not progress due to valuation differences, while emphasizing Glencore’s standalone growth pipeline and improving operating delivery.

Glencore is one of the world's largest global diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of more than 60 commodities that advance everyday life. Through a network of assets, customers and suppliers that spans the globe, we produce, process, recycle, source, market and distribute the commodities that support decarbonisation while meeting the energy needs of today. With over 150,000 employees and contractors and a strong footprint in over 35 countries in both established and emerging regions for natural resources, our marketing and industrial activities are supported by a global network of more than 50 offices.

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